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Numbers, they say, never lie although statistics can be made to. Where
they are most useful, however, is when they can be analysed to give a
scale of the magnitude of the task ahead for someone who wants to
achieve something.
Clik here to view.
Numbers, they say, never lie although statistics can be made to. Where
they are most useful, however, is when they can be analysed to give a
scale of the magnitude of the task ahead for someone who wants to
achieve something.
The Opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition,
comprising of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), PAS, DAP and allies in Sabah
and Sarawak, has made plain its target of taking over the government in
the next 13th general election, and is publicly confident of doing so.
Can it? The figures clearly show that it
is a much easier task for Barisan Nasional to keep its power than it is
for Pakatan to wrest it away. Before I get pilloried as a doomsayer for
Opposition chances, do hear me out. As I said, numbers don’t lie.
Let’s focus on Parliamentary elections
which decide federal power. The March 2008 elections, GE12, saw a huge
swing of votes to the opposition. Popular vote for Barisan Nasional
(BN) dropped to a mere 50.3 percent from its previous 64 percent. The
BN lost 58 seats to the opposition, effectively Pakatan. The Opposition
gained 61 seats to take 82 seats. The difference between seats gained
and lost is because of the three additional seats in 2008.
In Peninsular Malaysia where all of the
swing occurred, the Opposition had 51 percent of the popular vote. But
because their strength was in the urban areas which had much higher
population densities, it translated into a smaller proportionate number
of 80 seats for the Opposition, and 84 seats for BN in the Peninsula.
What saved the day for BN was the very
solid showing in Sabah and Sarawak where it lost just one seat in each
of the two states to garner 25 seats in Sabah, and 31 seats in Sarawak.
That gave them 56 seats from East Malaysia and thus, the right to rule.
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