Pakatan Rakyat is likely to make a big dent in BN's fortress in Johor based on the huge turnout at its ceramahs.
JOHOR
BARU: As the last few hours tick away before Sunday polls, Pakatan
Rakyat is poised to take at least eight parliamentary seats in Johor.
The DAP southern team led by party adviser Lim Kit Siang
is expected to capture Gelang Patah, Kulai, Kluang, Labis, Tanjung Piai
while retaining Bakri.
Johor PKR chief Chua Jui Meng and PAS vice-president
Salahuddin Ayub also have a good chance of taking Segamat and Pulai
respectively.
The forecast is based on the assumption that Pakatan
candidates will bag 80% of the Chinese votes, 25% of the Malay votes and
50% of the Indian votes.
Pakatan is expected to easily obtain 80% of the Chinese
votes judging from the overwhelming response it has received across
Johor.
Throughout the campaigning period, Pakatan has been able
to attract thousands, if not tens of thousands, of Chinese to their
ceramahs.
However, the number of Malays attending the Pakatan
ceramahs increased only slightly ranging from a few hundreds to a few
thousands. Pakatan is expected to see a 25% swing to its side compared
with the 14%-20% in the 2008 general election.
Meanwhile, the Indian votes are split almost evenly
based on the response of the voters interviewed by FMT. Some of them
acknowledged that the government has failed to resolve long-standing
problems such as the “stateless” Indians, while others feel that the BN
administration has done a pretty good job.
However, the opposition is unlikely to bag Johor Baru
and Air Hitam parliamentary seats, held by BN’s Shahri Abdul Samad and
Wee Ka Siong respectively.
This is because both of them have immense influence in
their constituencies which they won with more than 10,000-vote majority
in the 2008 polls.
Tide has changed